According to Marcus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, the numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2030 just don’t add up.
“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen told Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, noting that bitcoin’s historical capital inflows over the past 15 years are far less than what it would need to attract in the next four years to reach $1 million. “We’ve seen $1 trillion inflows to really bring the market cap to $1 trillion. To $1 million (per) bitcoin. I think, from here it’s 15x,” Thielen said.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately $1.28 trillion, trading at $63,868. According to on CoinMarketCap.
Thielen estimates that Bitcoin will need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach $1 million per bitcoin. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the total value of the US stock market flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.
“It would require trillions,” Thielen said
“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to push the price materially higher, and that’s why we’re not as bullish as the arguments that we think are completely mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen said.
Bitcoin is down 2.35% in the last 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
Thielen said that as bitcoin prices rise, retail sentiment will weaken, partly due to the psychology of investors wanting to own an entire unit of a property.
“I think a lot of people are thinking, maybe I should buy a new car rather than buy a bitcoin, or should I really work all year for a bitcoin?” Thielen said. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a bitcoin; they want to buy a whole bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”
“Satoshis don’t really seem as attractive as bitcoin,” Thielen said.
He warns bitcoiners not to expect a bitcoin rebound like in previous cycles, and the $126,000 all-time high may not re-emerge as quickly as investors expect.
“Typically, it takes a while because we’re at a high market cap, and it usually takes a lot of money to push the price of bitcoin higher. So I wouldn’t argue that we’ll see new highs next year. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be a big, big achievement,” Thielen said.
$1 Million Bitcoin Claimed by Well-Known Industry Executives
Prominent industry figures including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and RK Invest CEO Cathy Wood have predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. Thielen argues that such bold forecasts are an easy way for executives to generate media attention.
“The bigger the round number and the number, the more it’s being cited by the press,” Thielen says, arguing that irrational predictions do more harm than good.
“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they think, well, if it’s only half right, I’ll make a lot of money,” Thielen says.
“I think almost everybody was still very bullish and assumed high prices (but) we’ve already come into a pretty conservative year, and you know, I think our conservative approach was the right strategy,” Thielen said.
Cointelegraph asked Thielen what year bitcoiners could reasonably expect bitcoin to reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I think, you know, a million is a really high number,” Thielen said.
“It would require, you know, a major credit event, an implosion of everything.”
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