Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking into the longest bullish streak of 2026 with typical bear-market behavior as a classic onchain metric.
Key points:
- Bitcoin’s SOPR metric has remained above its breakeven point of 1 for a full three weeks, its longest stretch in 2026.
- Analysis suggests that UTXO profitability is reflecting a return to bull-market conditions.
- David Puel says that SOPR should remain bullish for longer given more BTC price downside.
SOPR data repeats early bull-market activity
Data from crypto analytics platforms CryptoQuant shows that the Spending Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is now above its breakeven level of 1 since August 19. SOPR measures how much onchain moving coins do so at a higher or lower price than previous transactions.
The metric, which normally runs in a tight range around 1, currently measures 1.002. Values above 1 indicate coins are moving mostly into profits – a sign of overall bullish market momentum. The signal has now persisted for three weeks, marking the longest stretch of bullish SOPR since 2026.
Bitcoin SOPR Chart. Source: CryptoQuant
SOPR can be Wallet is broken by cohort To differentiate profits between new and old investors. Commenting on SOPR readings for short-term holders (STHs), wallets that hold UTXO without selling for up to six months, OnChain analysis suite CheckChain added hope that Bitcoin is resuming a long-term bullish streak.
“In bear markets, there is a selling trend that returns to profits. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even result in buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look like that first bull-market recovery,” it said. to say X followers over the weekend.
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data. Source: Checkonchain on X.com
Puel Retains “Downside Risk” on Bitcoin Price Despite SOPR Recovery
Even with BTC/USD nearing the $80,000 local range as the SOPR gains continue, the pair may yet hit new macro lows this cycle, one of the industry’s most prominent analysts has warned.
Related: New Bitcoin whales spark sell-off-like risk as unrealized gains reach $9B
in a the interview With CryptoQuant on September 4, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puel, creator of the Puel Multiple BTC price indicator, said more evidence was needed to speculate that the next bear-market floor was already in place.
Asked how Bitcoin’s 25% August surge might play out heading into Q4, Puel suggested that further upside is unlikely.
“In our view, so far, we’ve kept it as a downside risk,” he said.
Puel singled out SOPR signals as a key prerequisite for a change in his long-term bias, noting that the metric needs to remain above 1 for an extended period of time, with investors “perceived consistent gains without price falling back to new lows.”
Bitcoin must start holding a series of higher highs and higher lows – a pattern that Cointelegraph reported The weekly time frame is still missing.
In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Yong Joo The bear market has already been described as “over”. Its ownership is behind recent readings from the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator.
