Bitcoin (BTC) buyers avoided “buying the dip” as BTC price fell to $57,800 in July, analysis reports.
Key points:
- The Bitcoin HODL Waves metric shows that buyers were in no rush to enter the market as BTC/USD fell below $58,000 in early July.
- A lone whale may have been among the only deep-buyers at the time, said analyst Willie Wu.
- Analysis continues to warn that the bear market shows no definite signs of structural change based on current price action.
Willy A: Bitcoin’s bottom buyer could be a lone whale
Data from Bitcoin The HODL wave The metric showed an unusually muted reaction to recent macro lows.
HODL Waves groups the supply of BTC based on how long the coins have been dormant in their wallets, planning each group to form the chart’s signature wave-like pattern over time. The new supply, dormant coins between one and seven days, provides investors with insight into buying activity following key BTC price events.
July 1, BTC/USD in brief Dropped below $58,000September reached its lowest level since 2024. On that day, the inactive portion of the supply between one and seven days was 1.97%, according to data from Look Into Bitcoin. The number increased slightly in the following days, reaching just 2.35% on 5 July.
For onchain analyst Willy Wu, this lack of onchain movement stands in for a long-term BTC price underperformance. Earlier, he noted, buyers rushed to buy the new lows — a knee-jerk reaction absent in July.
“Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Maybe even a single whale,” he wrote in a post on X this week, describing the incident as an “anomaly.”
Wu acknowledges that the explanation is not conclusive, that institutional investment vehicles likely influence the HODL Waves data.
“I can’t find any other thesis to explain the anomaly other than the slow steady buying of all investors involved implies that it’s a handful of buyers because if it’s high, they act like a herd around the price action and create a spike in the buying pattern,” he added.
Doubts remain about the bear-market floor
The results add to the debate over whether July marked bitcoin’s latest bear-market bottom
Related: Bitcoin Bear Market ‘Over’ As Price Metric Copies 2023 Recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
as Cointelegraph reportedOpinions diverged significantly as BTC/USD rebounded above $80,000, with previous BTC price cycles indicating the need for a new macro low in the coming months.
In its latest analysis, trader and analyst Rect Capital warned that the structure of the bear market clearly remains intact in one form. Low Altitude Series In a broad undercurrent.
“Right now, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history. However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before a new weekly close, if that’s possible. A weekly close below ~$78300 could set the price up for a May-like breakdown,” he said. wrote Thursday
August, meanwhile, saw a return to buyer appetite for US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Net inflows show $3.8 billion For more than three weeks.
