The likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law this year on polymarkets fell sharply again on Monday after spiking the previous day, as key Senate Democrats said they were unimpressed by Republicans’ “final” crypto bill proposal.
Polymarket traders initially saw a newly revised Republican proposal with expanded ethics provisions as a positive sign. sent Odds are 35%. However, their confidence was shattered as reservations about the revised text began to mount, falling as low as 16% as of Monday.
U.S. Senator Mark Warner, one of the Democrats involved in the discussions, reported said The revised ethics provision was not “close enough,” as Democrats involved in the negotiations began preparing a counterproposal on Monday.
Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, and failure on Tuesday could lead to legislation that would determine how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would divide oversight of the U.S. crypto market.
Mainstream Democrats remain skeptical of the morality proposition
Punchbowl News’ Brendan Pedersen reports that Senator Raphael Warnock said Democrats should not pass legislation that fails to address opportunities for corruption that are occurring in “real time.”
Pedersen Report Senator Ruben Gallego said the latest ethics proposal left “much to be desired” and he plans to work on a counter proposal. Separately Pedersen Report Senator Elizabeth Warren’s staff on the Senate Banking Committee circulated talking points arguing that the proposed State AG enforcement process could be overridden by decisions made by White House ethics officials.
Democrats have since sent their counterproposals to Republican negotiator, Politico’s Jasper Goodman. ReportDr. citing three people who know about the matter.
Not all Democrats oppose advancing the bill to floor consideration. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has personally urged colleagues to support the procedural motion, Politico reported Report.
Republican Senator Cynthia Loomis said President Donald Trump adopted two important ethics provisions, leaving Democrats with “nothing left to claim.”
The resistance adds to the opposition of a coalition of 18 state attorneys general and creates more uncertainty about whether Republicans can muster the votes needed to advance the bill.
Banking and tribal groups challenge the recent text
The Indian Gaming Association, a national body representing tribal gaming interests, requested Member tribes urged senators to vote against the bill because its proposed decentralized finance changes did not address Indian country concerns about the prediction market.
The association called for clear language to ensure that federal commodity laws do not preempt tribal or state gaming laws, including the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
Related: The revised clarity law targets ‘non-decentralized’ DeFi operators
Eight banking trade groups also said The revised text fails to close loopholes allowing fixed coin rewards that act like interest on deposits. According to the groups, the proposed regulatory “circuit breaker” would activate only after substantial flight of deposits from community banks.
Crypto industry groups have urged senators to advance the legislation. A statement On Monday, Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger said the industry has made significant concessions to help build bipartisan support and urged every senator to vote yes.
He argued that the bill would provide clear rules, protect consumers and prevent illegal activities while preventing crypto jobs, developers and innovation from moving overseas.
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