Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $77,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open as gold joined the crypto rally at a 14-week high.
Key points:
- Both bitcoin and gold hit their highest levels since May 15 against the US dollar.
- The analysis strongly ties the performance of US government debt policy.
- Polymarket odds of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 before 2027 are 48%.
Analysis: Bitcoin and Gold Gains Not “Surprises”
Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD cooling after reaching its highest level since May 15, still up around 6% on the day.
BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Gold echoed the move, hitting a multi-month high of $4,632 an ounce, up 2.2% on the day at the time of writing. On a monthly basis, BTC/USD and XAU/USD are up 13% and 16% respectively.
BTC/USD vs XAU/USD one day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“What’s Happening Now in Gold and Crypto Shouldn’t Surprise You,” Market Commentary Kobeisi Letter wrote In response to X.
Kobeisi blamed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto on a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of its fixed-income buying and selling program to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeisi argued.
Discussing bitcoin’s reaction to the current macro landscape, trading company QCP Capital noted that signals of financial stress have moved beyond the US, highlighting rising yields on Japanese government bonds following a rare joint currency intervention in the yen earlier this month.
“The most notable cross-asset signal this week is the divergence following the Treasury announcement. Treasuries initially rallied before reversing much of the move. BTC and gold did not pull back to the same extent,” it wrote in its latest market color Analysis, added:
“It does not establish a new liquidity or monetary regime, but it does highlight the sensitivity of alternative assets to changes in long-term rates and the dollar.”
Polymarket 2026 50% close to $90,000 BTC
Consensus on potential year-end targets began to improve, as BTC price surged past 20% in two days.
Data from prediction services Polymarket The probability of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 before 2027 is at 48% at the time of writing, having risen sharply since the start of the week.
BTC/USD likely to hit $90,000 by January 1, 2027 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket
Related: Tactics Bitcoin Treasury reaches breakeven point as BTC price crosses $77K
Some market participants, however, remain skeptical. Trader and analyst Rect Capital insists that Bitcoin needs to recover its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,232, a trend line it rejected in January.
“Break the downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical macro uptrend. But decline from here and the price will maintain its series of low highs,” he said. to say Follow X.
“History says there is still time for prices to continue the downtrend.”
BTC/USD one month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
